New Methodology for Measuring Actual to Expected Accuracy Applied to Fasano Database

Drs. Daniel Bauer (Georgia State University) and Jochen Russ (Institute for Actuarial Studies) presented a new methodology for measuring Actual to Expected accuracy at the 9th Annual Fasano Life Settlement & Longevity Conference. The new methodology, Difference in Curtate Life Expectancy (DCLE), calculates the average difference between the actual and expected number of months lived, and is less biased than other methodologies. When applied to the entire Fasano life settlement database, Fasano’s average difference between actual and expected months of survival was less than one month.

Bauer and Russ then sorted Fasano’s DCLE by date of underwriting, as summarized in the following table:

Copies of Drs. Bauer and Russ’ slides are available at www.ifa-ulm.de/downloads/DCLE.pdf. Copies of the subsequent article they published on this methodology are available here.